"Καλύτερα για την Ελλάδα να βγει από το ευρώ"

Την προτροπή κάνει ένας από τους σημαντικότερους αναλυτές, από αυτούς που δημιουργούν τις εξελίξεις παγκοσμίως, ο ...

Brooks Ritchey, Senior Managing Director της K2 Advisors Franklin Templeton Solutions.

Σε εκτενές και πολύ ενδιαφέρον άρθρο (διαβάστε το εδώ) και αφού εξετάσει όλα τα σενάρια των συνεπειών που θα έχουν οι λύσεις που έχει η Ελλάδα, καταλήγει:

(το κακό είναι ότι και αυτός υποδεικνύει στην Ελλάδα να μειώσει τη γραφειοκρατία για να σωθεί, κάτι που είναι ΑΠΟΛΥΤΩΣ αδύνατο να συμβεί στη γελοία (από οργανωτική άποψη) χώρα μας, όπου ένας διεφθαρμένος άρπαγας αγράμματος εφοριακός, μπορεί να καταστρέψει σε μία μέρα μια επένδυση δισεκατομμυρίων της General Motors π.χ. ή μια αυτιστική αγάμητη υπάλληλος του ΙΚΑ ή της επιθεώρησης εργασίας, μπορεί να κλείσει σε μιά ώρα την πιο συνεπή και υγιή επιχείρηση, αν βρεθεί σε "επαναστατικό αντικαπιταλιστικό" οίστρο.

What Should Greece Do?

Let us assume we are Greece. Setting aside the moral/ethical implications for defaulting on one’s obligations, and the short-term pain, from a purely utilitarian standpoint (or Machiavellian)—maybe in the long run it just makes better sense for Greece to exit the euro. Again, I am not suggesting this is the best course of action, but if we consider that scenario, we would assume that eventually, Greece would be allowed back into the bond market, as unlikely a reality as that may seem currently.

Greece could in theory balk on its debt and return to the drachma, let the market set the value on the currency, and then work to get its fiscal house in order. We think that’s certainly a daunting prospect.

Another interesting approach: According to the CIA World Factbook, tourism represents 18% of Greek GDP.5 Why not try to make it 25% or 30%? Make Greece the most compelling, best-value, most pleasurable destination in Europe? Certainly, the US dollar-to-euro exchange rate is an enticing incentive for consumption-minded Americans. At a minimum, Greece has got the topography part nailed down, the food is outstanding, and certainly its citizenry is as hospitable and friendly as any in the world. If Greece committed to an extensive tourism drive, and to treating each visitor like a king bringing gold (because figuratively that is what he/she would be), I think the country could do quite well for itself in terms of generating GDP.

If a business wants to open a factory in Greece, make that happen—give all of the incentives you can to encourage foreign investment. Minimize red tape, just entice corporations to bring their money and jobs, and the Greek government will take care of the rest.

While it would be difficult, there are a plethora of examples of countries that have done the same with much less, certainly without the natural geographic advantages afforded Greece by Mother Nature.

In the end, all we can do is position our portfolios prudently and wait to see what happens; the ultimate outcome at this stage is very difficult to know. What I do know is that the next time I hear the song “Stuck in the Middle” on the radio, I will think of Greece and the EU. Perhaps now you will as well.